In the latest “Quantifying the Transaction” article of the NFL 2017 offseason, we are looking at the signing of Stephon Gilmore.
In this series, we quantifiably analyze every major trade and free agent signing that happens in professional football. Be sure to check back here following every major transaction for in-depth and detailed analysis of each move.
MAVEM Salary Recommendations are calculated using modified approximate value per year outputs and scaled tape scores from the NFL1000 scouting team. For background on these values and the systems used to construct the salary recommendations and trade analysis seen in the “Quantifying the Transaction” pieces, click here.
Gilmore’s new contract per Adam Schefter:
Patriots are giving former Bills CB Stephon Gilmore a five-year, $65 million deal that includes $40 million guaranteed, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 9, 2017
Here is what MAVEM thought of the Gilmore move:
Now before I lay into this, I want to preface it by saying that head coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots front office have probably forgotten more about building a team than I know, but I’m still going to evaluate this move like I would any other.
New England made a big mistake with this contract. Sure, the Patriots have a ton of assets to spend and a big margin for error, but they overpaid here.
One big issue is the guarantee. The way they set it up, they cannot get out of this contract at all for at least three years. Big rangy cornerbacks like Gilmore are in vogue right now, but there are ways to find them without paying a premium like this.
You think the Patriots would know that, considering what they did when they acquired Eric Rowe for almost nothing last year. Gilmore has never been quite the caliber of player Janoris Jenkins (the big-money cornerback from a year ago), and paying a similar amount with a bigger guarantee doesn’t make sense to me.
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