Points Per Reception fantasy football leagues have been on the rise over the last few years. They seem easy in theory, but when it gets to drafts, it’s a little more than assuming that players with more receptions should merit a higher draft spot. The question then becomes: How much higher?
Jarvis Landry had 111 receptions last year, but only four touchdowns. Does he become a WR1 in PPR leagues? And where the heck should Danny Woodhead be drafted after 81 receptions last season?
Moving players like them up draft lists is easy, but how much? That’s the hard part.
- Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
- Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
- Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants
- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans
- A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
My standard and PPR rankings aren’t much different early on, yet still, they’re different from most. I’ll take consistent WRs over iffy RBs any day, and that means Todd Gurley and David Johnson. I think Green has a good chance at reaching his levels from 2012 and 2013 when he had 97 and 98 receptions, respectively. I think that’s worth more than any of the RBs available.
- Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
- David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
- Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
- Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
Not many will be taking Arian Peterson in the top eight or putting Allen Robinson over Dez Bryant. However, Peterson’s reliability is the main factor, and while he may get fewer touches this season and isn’t a huge threat in the receiving game, I’m not going to ignore how trustworthy he has been throughout his career. As for Robinson, he was used as a burner a lot last year, averaging 17.5 yards per catch, but I’m willing to bet that he’ll surpass 80 receptions in 2016. As for Bryant, he’ll come shortly, but I don’t trust his health all that much.
- Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
- Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys
- Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Jets
- Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans
- Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
- Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
According to the FantasyPros consensus PPR rankings, Miller should be a top-10 pick. I remain tentative on him, though. Maybe he’ll surprise and live up to that value, but I don’t trust him that much, especially if the Texans expect to get him 300 carries this year. He’s never had more than 254 touches in a season. I had Freeman lower, but couldn’t deny that he’s a better receiver than Tevin Coleman.
- Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers
- Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers
- Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears
- Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints
- Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins
Here’s another run of WRs that I’d love to have on my team. The most interesting thing is that Landry isn’t getting much respect after his 111 receptions in 2015. He’s ranked No. 30 overall over at FantasyPros. I think 100 catches is a real possibility for him again, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doubles his touchdown total with Adam Gase leading the offense. Sure, some of these guys have injury risks (Nelson, Allen, Jeffery), but they are all worth it late in the second round.
- Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
If you draft Bell, you need DeAngelo Williams. Simple as that.
- T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
- Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders
I could go with a few more RBs right here, but I like both of these guys’ upside. Hilton should be back to former levels with Andrew Luck and Cooper had 72 receptions in his rookie year. Expect 85 and 1,200 yards from him this season.
- LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills
- Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Bucs
- Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints
- Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers
And here’s the run of RBs I was talking about. These four guys all have a solid floor, if healthy, but also have an incredible ceiling. But because of health concerns, I dropped them below the aforementioned receivers.
- Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers
- Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills
- Jeremy Maclin, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
These three WRs are all somewhat consistent. Maybe no one would call Watkins consistent, but when he’s on the field with Tyrod Taylor, he was one of the best. And maybe they aren’t game breakers, but all can be solid WR2s.
Without any other player jumping off the board, I finally decided to look at quarterbacks. The rest of the options below are iffy, and these quarterbacks are the opposite of iffy. Give me known production over a WR/RB/TE that I’m not confident about.
- Dion Lewis, RB, New England Patriots
- Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers
- C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos
These three RBs sum up why I’m not confident. It’d be a surprise if Lewis and Hyde played all 16 games this year. Both can be great, but will either be fully healthy this season? As for Anderson, I don’t care how much the Broncos are running the ball; I can’t believe in him after last year.
- Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions
- Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots
- Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos
These WRs are kind of in the same boat as the above RBs. Tate has the highest upside, but his enthusiasm last year was questioned, and now he doesn’t have Megatron to steal attention. Thomas will have Mark Sanchez as his quarterback to start the season and Edelman can’t seem to stay healthy.