With a third of the NFL season about to be behind us, we as fantasy owners are dealing with a number of challenges. Whether it is a star player on his bye week, like Russell Wilson, or a season-long injury to your standout receiver, like Odell Beckham Jr., the challenges you’re facing make your lineup decisions even more important as we have a narrower margin for error. To help get these important decisions right, take a look inside the numbers before you set your fantasy football lineup for Week 6.
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have allowed multiple touchdowns in each of their last three contests. Carson Wentz is a fine play in Week 6.
Cam Newton has thrown for at least 316 yards and three touchdowns in each of his last two games. He should continue his recent strong play this week. The Eagles have allowed a 300-yard passer in two of their last three.
Carolina is allowing the most receptions to running backs this season, with 40 allowed. If Wendell Smallwood can play this week, look for him to take advantage of this opportunity.
LeGarrette Blount has done well in recent weeks, averaging more than six yards per carry in his last three. But the running back is not getting a ton of rushes as he is averaging just 14 carries per game in that same three-game span.
Tough to recommend starting Jonathan Stewart this week after watching the Panthers rush for just 28 yards in Week 5. The Eagles have allowed just one running back to eclipse more than 35 rushing yards in a game this season.
And it is equally difficult to have much faith in Christian McCaffrey in Week 6. The Eagles are allowing a 16 percent target rate to running backs this season, the second-lowest percentage to the position in the NFL.
Carolina has allowed 15 receptions to wide receivers in each of their last two games, so maybe this is the week Alshon Jeffery gets it going.
Torrey Smith had three catches for 55 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers last season.
Nelson Agholor has recorded at least 50 receiving yards in each of his last contests.
Philadelphia is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season, so trust Kelvin Benjamin this week.
Devin Funchess has seen his role in the Carolina offense expand since Greg Olsen went down with an injury. Funchess has seen 33 targets in the passing game since the tight end was injured in Week 1. And with the extended run, Funchess has produced. He is averaging 5.5 receptions, 62.25 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game in that span.
Zach Ertz continues to flourish this season with at least six catches in each game. The tight end is a fine play again this week, as the Panthers are fresh off allowing two touchdowns to tight ends in Week 5.
Ed Dickson continues to get excellent run as Olsen’s replacement. He has been on the field for 99.4 percent of the Panthers’ offensive plays in the three games that he has started since Olsen’s injury.
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons
Jay Cutler has not thrown for more than 252 yards in his last 12 games. He also has not thrown for multiple touchdowns in his last nine.
Miami has allowed just one quarterback to toss for more than one touchdown in a game this season. This is not good for Matt Ryan’s fantasy prospects this week. The Falcons’ signal caller has thrown for more than one touchdown in game just once in the 2017 season.
Jay Ajayi is touching the ball almost 21 times a game.
Devonta Freeman is one of only two running backs to score a touchdown in each of their games this season. Look for him to score again this week. Since the start of the 2016 season, Freeman has average 1.4 touchdowns per game at home.
Jarvis Landry’s fantasy success is reliant on lots of targets. With that in mind, Atlanta is allowing the second-lowest target rate to wide receivers this season.
Atlanta held Buffalo’s receivers to just four catches in Week 4. With that in mind, DeVante Parker seems to have his hands full if he is able to play this week.
Julio Jones should get back on track this week. Miami is allowing a league high 60 percent success rate on passes to wide receivers this season.
With Mohamed Sanu out this weekend, Taylor Gabriel should step up. The wide receiver went for three receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown in Week 14 last season, a game in which Sanu sat out. It won’t hurt his chances any that the Dolphins are 32nd in DVOA vs. No. 2 wide receivers in 2017.
Julius Thomas has just nine catches on the season, while the Falcons have allowed just eight receptions to tight ends in their last two.
Don’t expect big things from Austin Hooper this week. The Dolphins are allowing the fifth- fewest yards per attempt to tight ends, with a six-yard average.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
In Week 16 of the 2016 season, Aaron Rodgers tossed for 347 yards and four touchdowns against the Vikings.
Green Bay has yet to allow more than 252 passing yards in a game, making Case Keenum’s fantasy ceiling fairly low in Week 6.
While serving as Ty Montgomery’s replacement, Aaron Jones got Montgomery-like usage, as he played on 51 of the Packers’ 58 offensive snaps. If the two split touches, this is probably not the week to play either. The Vikings have allowed a total of 210 rushing yards to running backs in their last three games.
Jerick McKinnon played 25 more snaps than Latavius Murray in Week 5. After averaging 5.9 yards per carry in that game, look for McKinnon to get an even bigger share of the backfield opportunity this week. Of course, this is good for his fantasy value. According to Graham Barfield, the Vikings’ ball carrier has finished as a top-24 running back in PPR league in seven of the10 games in which he has seen at least 55 percent of his team’s snaps.
Jordy Nelson scored three touchdowns against the Vikings in 2016.
In Week 2 of last season, Randall Cobb caught five passes for 42 yards against Minnesota. The Vikings are ranked 28th in DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers this season.
Davante Adams has 19 touchdowns in his last 25 contests.
Stefon Diggs caught a touchdown in each of his two games against the Packers in 2016.
The last time he played Green Bay, Adam Thielen went off. He finished with 12 catches for 202 yards and two touchdowns. He should be less productive in this one.
Martellus Bennett is getting plenty of opportunity this season, with 29 targets. But he can’t find a way to get one in the end zone, as he has failed to score a touchdown this season. Maybe this is the week for the tight end to cross the goal line. The Vikings have allowed three touchdowns to tight ends in five games this season.
The Packers are ranked third in DVOA vs. the No. 2 wide receiver this season.
In two games against the Packers in 2016, Kyle Rudolph combined for just nine catches for 84 yards. His struggles against Green Bay are likely to continue this week. The Packers are allowing just 35.2 yards per game to tight ends in 2017.
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
Matthew Stafford threw for 341 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints in Week 13 last season. Things may not be so easy this time around. The Saints have not allowed a passing touchdown in their last two games.
The good news is that last season, Drew Brees threw for 300 yards against the Lions in Week 13. The bad news? He also was intercepted three times and held to zero touchdowns in this contest.
Just maybe this will be the week that Theo Riddick returns with a larger role in the Lions offense. The Saints are allowing a 59 percent success rate on passes to running backs. Also, Riddick caught a touchdown pass against the Saints in 2016.
The Saints have allowed only one rushing touchdown this season. So, Ameer Abdullah is not in the best of spots this week.
The way for running backs to attack the Lions is through the air. They have allowed 32 catches to running backs this season, tied for fifth-most in the NFL.
Golden Tate has scored four touchdowns in his last three games against the Saints. He also has recorded two 100-plus yard games in that span.
Look for Marvin Jones to be a sneaky play this Sunday. The Saints are allowing a league-high 73.2 yards per game to No. 2 wide receivers.
Willie Snead caught two passes for 38 yards in Week 13 against the Lions.
Michael Thomas was held to 42 yards the last time he faced Detroit.
Darren Fells has risen to the top of the Lions’ depth chart at the tight end position, but there is no reason to consider him in this one. The Saints are allowing a well below league average 15 percent target rate to tight ends.
Coby Fleener had five catches for 86 yards in one game against the Lions in 2016. Detroit is allowing a league-high 12.2 yards per attempt average to tight ends and are ranked 28th in DVOA against the position in 2017. So he may be in for a repeat performance.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Of course you start Tom Brady each week. But he did average just 250 passing yards per game against the Jets in 2016. He did average 2.5 touchdowns per game against them last season. His lack of elite fantasy production against the Jets could continue this week. The Jets have not allowed more than 230 passing yards in a game to a quarterback this season.
New England has allowed a 300-yard passer in each of their first five games this season. Josh McCown is an excellent streaming option this week.
The Jets are allowing 7.7 receiving yards per attempt to running backs, so James White could be in line for a big day. The running back is second among running backs in the NFL with 7.5 targets per game this season. Also consider that the running back has a receiving touchdown in two of his last three vs. New York.
Mike Gillislee scored a touchdown in each of his two games against the Jets in 2016.
New England is allowing a 59 percent success rate on passes to running backs this season. This means that Elijah McGuire should be plenty busy in the passing game this week. And with the heavy volume, expect him to pick up big chunks of yards. The Patriots are also allowing 8.5 yards per attempt to the position, the second-highest average in the NFL, as well as 73.8 receiving yards per game to running backs.
Chris Hogan has caught a touchdown in four straight games to open the 2017 season, and in seven straight dating back to last season.
Brandin Cooks has yet to catch more than five passes in a game as a member of the Patriots.
Danny Amendola has had at least eight receptions in two of his last three vs. the Jets.
In two games against New England in 2016, Robby Anderson had just two catches.
Last season, Jermaine Kearse had just two catches in his lone game against New England. However, his production should increase this week. The Patriots are allowing 96.8 yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers.
This is not a great matchup for Rob Gronkowski. The Jets are allowing just 5.6 yards per attempt to the position, third lowest in the NFL, as well as being ranked second in DVOA against the position. Also after seeing double-digit targets in four straight against the Jets, Gronkowski received a total of eight targets in two games against them in 2016.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins led his team in targets and catches in Week 5. Seferian-Jenkins sets up nicely again this week, as the Patriots have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position while allowing a touchdown to the position in four of their five games played.
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins
This is not a great spot for Brian Hoyer. The Redskins have not allowed multiple passing touchdowns in each of the last three weeks.
Kirk Cousins should get his yards this week. San Francisco has allowed 963 passing yards in their last three.
Carlos Hyde received just eight carries in Week 5. That is his second time this season receiving less than double-digit carries in a game.
Matt Breida saw 10 rushes for the first time this season in Week 5.
The 49ers are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Most of the damage is coming via the passing game. They have allowed 35 receptions (third most), 300 receiving yards (third most) and two receiving touchdowns (third most) to the position. Chris Thompson should smash this week.
It will be tough to pass on Pierre Garcon, because of his heavy target rate. But keep in mind that Washington is ranked fifth in DVOA vs. No. 1 wide receivers and is allowing just 28.7 yards per game to the position.
After his performance last week, people will want to be on Marquise Goodwin this Sunday. But don’t fall for it. The Redskins are ranked second in DVOA vs. No. 2 wide receivers.
Terrelle Pryor should get some yardage in this one. Washington has allowed over 200 yards receiving to wide receivers in each of their last three.
Josh Doctson has not caught more than two balls in a game yet this season.
Paging George Kittle. The Washington Redskins have allowed at least 90 yards or a touchdown to a tight end in every game this season.
San Francisco is allowing just a 14 percent target rate and is ranked first in DVOA to tight ends this season, so Jordan Reed/Vernon Davis’ fantasy ceiling seems low this week.
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore’s defense has intercepted more passes (nine) than touchdown passes they have allowed (seven). This is not the week to consider starting rookie Mitchell Trubisky.
Starting in Week 2, the Bears have not allowed a quarterback to throw for more than 235 yards in a game. Keep that in mind before you start Joe Flacco on your fantasy team.
Baltimore has allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back in each of their last three games. Jordan Howard, who has three rushing touchdowns in his last three games, has a good chance at reaching the end zone again this week.
After being heavily involved in the passing game early in the season, Tarik Cohen received just one target in Week 5. Between his lack of catches and his low snap rate (a month low of 28 percent in Week 5), his fantasy relevance is slipping.
The Bears are allowing just 3.61 yards per rush attempt, so no need to rush Alex Collins into your lineup this week.
Chicago is allowing only 36.5 receiving yards per game to running backs, making Buck Allen a less then stellar play this week.
Not that you would, but this is not the week to target Bears receivers. Baltimore is allowing a 39 percent success rate on passes to wide receivers this season, the second-lowest percent in the NFL.
Despite his 133-yard performance last week, Mike Wallace still has only 12 catches on the season. His low catch total should continue this week, as the Bears held Minnesota wide receivers to just seven receptions in Week 5.
Jeremy Maclin has not topped 43 yards since Week 1.
Zach Miller received seven targets in Trubisky’s first start. The tight end could struggle to be that involved in Week 6. The Ravens are allowing only a 15 percent target rate to the position in 2017. But if does still get the work, he is in a good spot. The Ravens are ranked 32nd in DVOA against the position this season.
Since racking up eight catches and 91 yards against the Browns in Week 2, Ben Watson has accumulated just 10 receptions for 57 yards. However, he could get it going again this week. The Bears have allowed 13 receptions to tight ends in the last two weeks.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
If you feel a need to play Kevin Hogan, consider that over the last three weeks, no one has allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Houston Texans.
Deshaun Watson has thrown nine touchdowns in his last two games. This amazing touchdown run should continue again this week. The Browns have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of their five games, and a total of six over their last two.
Duke Johnson has been finding most of success through the air this season but will have trouble replicating that success this week. Houston is allowing just 4.0 yards per pass attempt to running backs.
The good news for Isaiah Crowell is that in Week 5, he rushed for a season-high total. Unfortunately, that total was just 60 yards. And this week it is not likely that he will rush for much more. The Texans are allowing just 3.42 yards per rush to running backs in 2017.
Lamar Miller has not rushed for more than 75 yards in a game this season. That trend should continue this weekend, as the Browns have not allowed a single rusher to produce more than 66 yards on the ground against them.
Ricardo Louis recorded back-to-back five-reception games for the first time in his career with last week’s performance against the Jets.
DeAndre Hopkins should continue to rock it this week. The Browns have the 32nd-ranked DVOA vs. No. 1 wide receivers and are allowing 6.3 yards per game to the position.
Will Fuller’s regression should start this week. The Browns have a league-low 47 percent target rate to wide receivers. With how many targets Hopkins commands, it will be tough for Fuller to be heavily involved this week. Also, the Browns are the top-ranked defense in pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers.
David Njoku could get some targets his week. The Texans are allowing a 30 percent target rate as well as a 70.1-yard per game average to the tight end position in 2017.
Over their last 18 games, the Cleveland Browns have allowed 18 touchdowns. Ryan Griffin is in play this week, as the Browns are allowing a league-high 31 percent target rate to the position. They also are ranked 30th in DVOA vs. the tight end.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals
Jameis Winston threw for 243 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions in Week 2 of the 2016 season when he faced the Cardinals.
Carson Palmer is an excellent play this week. The Buccaneers are allowing 315.25 passing yards per game in 2017, and have allowed at least 288 passing yards in each contest. Last season, Palmer threw for 308 yards and three touchdowns in his last game against the Buccaneers.
Doug Martin rushed for just 23 yards on seven carries against the Cardinals in Week 2 of the 2016 season. It is likely that he will struggle in this one as well. The Arizona defense has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season.
Charles Sims is going to have a role in the passing game for the Bucs this season. But the role won’t be a big one this week. Arizona is allowing just a 31 percent success rate to passes to running backs this season.
In his last seven games, newly acquired Adrian Peterson has averaged just 2.39 yards per carry. Andre Ellington has nine catches in each of his last two games, while recording at least 59 yards in three straight. His 40 targets on the season are tops at the position.
When these two teams met in Week 2 last season, Mike Evans caught six passes for 70 yards and a touchdown. But it took 17 targets to hit that production. It appears it will take a similar workload this week, as the Cardinals are allowing just 30.7 yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers.
The Cardinals held DeSean Jackson to one catch the last time he faced Arizona.
Larry Fitzgerald once again should be featured this week. The Buccaneers are allowing the second-highest success rate to wide receivers, with 60 percent allowed to the position. Also, Fitzgerald has at least six catches, 68 yards and a touchdown in each of his last three against the Buccaneers.
In one game against Tampa Bay last season, Jaron Brown finished with two catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. He could be in for another nice game against them this week. The Buccaneers are allowing 69 yards per game to No. 2 wide receivers this season.
John Brown had just one catch against the Buccaneers last season.
Cameron Brate caught three passes for 16 yards against the Cardinals back in Week 2 of the 2016 season.
Even though he probably wasn’t getting much consideration anyways, this is not the week to plug in Jermaine Gresham. The Buccaneers are allowing just 4.6 yards per attempt to the tight end position this season.
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars
There are better quarterback options than Jared Goff this week. Goff faces a Jaguars defense that has intercepted eight passes while allowing zero touchdowns in their last last three games.
Last season against the Rams, Blake Bortles finished with 271 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception.
Todd Gurley should get back on track this week. Jacksonville is allowing 5.42 rush yards per attempt to running backs this season.
Continue to play Leonard Fournette in all fantasy formats. The Jaguars are running the ball a league high 52 percent of the time, while the Rams are allowing the most fantasy points to the running back position.
Sammy Watkins has just 14 catches on the season. The number isn’t likely to jump up this week, as the Jags are allowing just a 39 percent success rate on passes to wide receivers this season.
Don’t look for Robert Woods to be a fantasy impact player this week. Jacksonville is allowing a league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt to wide receivers this season.
Allen Hurns is not in a great spot this weekend. The Chargers are allowing just 18.4 yards per game to opposing No. 2 wide receivers.
Marqise Lee has just eight catches over his last three games.
Jacksonville has allowed just seven receptions to tight ends over the last two weeks, which is certainly not enough to make you interested in Tyler Higbee this week.
The Rams have allowed a touchdown to the tight end position in each of their last three games, if you want to throw a Hail Mary with Mercedes Lewis.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
In the 2016 playoffs, Ben Roethlisberger was held to just 224 yards and one interception against the Chiefs.
Pittsburgh has allowed just three passing touchdowns in 2017. Alex Smith is not a great fantasy option in Week 6. For what it is worth, in Week 18 last season, Alex Smith threw for 172 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
Le’Veon Bell could struggle to find a lot of action in the passing game this week. The Chiefs are allowing a league-low 26 percent success rate on passes to running backs. And on the ones that are being complete to them, the running backs aren’t going anywhere, as Kansas City is allowing a NFL-low 3.6 yards per attempt to running backs.
Kareem Hunt finds himself in an excellent spot in Week 6. The Steelers have allowed 522 yards and four touchdowns to running backs in their last three games.
Antonio Brown has either a 100-yards or a touchdown in each of his last four against the Chiefs. His success should continue this week, as the Chiefs are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Over the last three weeks, Ju Ju Smith-Schuster has played 15 more snaps than Martavis Bryant. But it probably doesn’t matter, as Kansas City is ranked fourth in DVOA vs. the No. 2 wide receiver and is allowing a measly 23 yards per game to the position.
The Steelers are allowing just 5.7 yards per pass attempt to wide receivers this season. Also, twice last season, the Steelers limited Tyreek Hill to less than 33 offensive yards in a game. So buyers beware on Hill this week.
In all of his career games against the Chiefs, Jesse James has either caught a touchdown or gone for 80-plus yards in each contest. The tight end should do well again the week, as the Chiefs are allowing 71.1 yards per game to the position in 2017.
Travis Kelce has caught five passes in each of his last three games against Pittsburgh. The tight end could struggle to get there this week, as the Steelers are ranked third in DVOA vs. the position in 2017.
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders
Philip Rivers threw for multiple touchdowns in each of his games against the Raiders in 2016.
The Chargers have not allowed more than 242 passing yards in a game this season. So it will be tough to trust a less-than-100 percent Derek Carr.
In Week 5 of last season, Melvin Gordon had 87 offensive yards and a touchdown against the Raiders. Oakland has allowed just one rushing touchdown to running backs this season, so a repeat outing could be tough for Gordon.
At this point it is getting tough to run out Marshawn Lynch in your fantasy team, but if you are looking for a positive, the Chargers have allowed 755 rushing yards to running backs this season. That number is tops in the league.
Keenan Allen should bounce back this week. The Raiders are ranked 31st in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers.
Last season, Tyrell Williams had just 20 receiving yards against Oakland.
The Chargers have allowed at least one touchdown to wide receivers in every game this season. If you had to guess who gets one against them this week, it would be Michael Crabtree.
Amari Cooper is in a major funk. He has just four catches for 23 yards over his last three games.
Hunter Henry has caught a touchdown in both of his career games against Oakland. He very much is in play again this week. After getting little work in the first quarter of the season, Henry played a season high, with a 75.6 percent snap rate.
The last time he played the Raiders, Antonio Gates caught just one pass for 11 yards.
The Chargers have allowed a total of 16 catches to tight ends this season, so expect a low ceiling from Jared Cook this weekend.
New York Giants at Denver Broncos
Since the start of the 2014 season, Eli Manning has struggled without Odell Beckham Jr. He has averaged 33.49 yards and 0.22 touchdowns less per game, as well as throwing 0.65 more interceptions per game in the games without Beckham.
The Giants have allowed three touchdown passes in each of their last two games. There are worst quarterback plays than Trevor Siemien this week.
In Week 5, Orleans Darkwa saw 20 snaps, Wayne Gallman received 25 and Shane Vereen played on 21. Without a workhorse on the roster, there is no need to play a Giants ball carrier against a Denver defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season.
C.J. Anderson is in a decent spot this week. The Giants have allowed at least 100 yards rushing to running backs in four of their five games this season.
Not only are they banged up, but also the Giants’ pass catchers are in a terrible spot to help your fantasy team this week. Denver is allowing just 6.1 yards per attempt to the position, fourth-lowest in the NFL.
In Week 1, when Beckham missed time because of an ankle injury, Rodger Lewis finished with four catches for 54 yards.
The Giants are allowing the fourth-least fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season while allowing no receiver to record more than 70 yards against them. This makes both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas tough plays in Week 6.
Evan Engram should see an increase in targets with the Giants’ wide receiver group decimated by injury. With an increase in opportunity, he is a decent play in Week 6. In each of their last three games, the Broncos have allowed at least 61 yards to tight ends.
A.J. Derby is a play this week. The Giants are allowing 77.7 yards per game to tight ends this season.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has allowed nine touchdowns (eight passing and one rushing) to quarterbacks in their last three games. Jacoby Brissett is a nice option in Week 6.
If Marcus Mariota can give it a go this week, you have to like his chances to be productive. The Colts have allowed at least 295 yards passing in four of their five games this season. Mariota has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of his three career games vs. the Colts.
Frank Gore averaged 102 offensive yards per game in two contests against Tennessee last season.
Tennessee is allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt to running backs this season. So Marlin Mack may be able to take advantage of the Titans in the passing game.
DeMarco Murray played 49 snaps in Week 5, while Derrick Henry got 11 reps on offense. Murray has scored a touchdown in each of his last three contests vs. the Colts.
T.Y. Hilton accumulated 230 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans last season.
Last time he played the Titans, Donte Moncrief caught a touchdown. He may not find the end zone again this week, but he still has a decent matchup. The Titans are ranked 30th in DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers this season.
In Week 11 of last season, Rishard Matthews finished with nine catches for 122 yards against the Colts.
This could finally be an Eric Decker week. The Colts are allowing 65.4 yards per game to No. 2 wide receivers in 2017.
In two games against the Titans last season, Jack Doyle combined for 10 catches, 85 yards and one touchdown.
Indianapolis is allowing 9.7 yards per attempt average to tight ends, third-most in the NFL, making Delanie Walker a fine play this week if healthy. Walker received 14 targets in two games against Indianapolis last season. While the Colts are ranked 29th in DVOA vs. the tight end and allowing 74 yards per game to the position.
— Statistical Credits: FootballOutsiders.com, Rotoviz.com, NFL.com, Scout.com, SharpFootballStats.com.
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