In the month leading up to the draft, all reports tend to be optimistic. There are detractors and debates, but teams tend to focus on good Pro Days, huge combine performances and guys who have improved their draft stock.
It’s similar to the universal optimism of training camp, when everyone is undefeated and every player thinks: “This is our year.”
Looking back to 2014 shows this optimism is unfounded. There are going to busts and picks that miss. It’s important to keep this in mind because these misses—perhaps even more than the good picks—can define the future for different teams.
While it’s way too early to call anything for sure—even Johnny Manziel still has a chance to get things together and show he can be an elite NFL QB—there are some guys who already look like they went too high last year.