Fantasy Football rankings are important when studying for drafts, but Average Draft Position (ADP) lists can’t be completely ignored.
When drafting at your specific site, whether it’s Yahoo, ESPN, or wherever, the draft room always displays ADP for that site. And similar to rankings, ADP changes by the day.
Updates like Dion Lewis starting the season on the PUP or Tajae Sharpe becoming a starter for the Titans affects ADP. As these guys move down the list (or up), they become underrated (or overrated). That’s why ADP is a good thing to look at before drafts.
People may hate on a certain player so much, that they begin to have value. Let’s try and find the most notable instances over the past month.
All of the numbers used can be found at Fantasy Football Calculator for 12-team, standard leagues.
Starting with an obvious one, Brandon Marshall shot up a full round from 3.03 at the end of July to 2.04, as of this writing, because Ryan Fitzpatrick re-signed with the Jets. But should he be going that early above the likes of Jordy Nelson and Mike Evans?
Marshall is 32 years old and his quarterback will be 34 by the end of the season and both are coming off career years. With the second-round ADP, most are assuming Marshall can repeat simply because he got his QB back. He jumped too high in rankings because he was even too high when Geno Smith was slated to be the starting quarterback.
An unrelated ADP move between two wide receivers on the same team has John Brown gaining on Larry Fitzgerald. Just two weeks ago in the middle of August, Fitzgerald was at 6.03 while Brown was 7.02. Even though Brown has had concussion issues, he has moved right behind Fitzgerald in WR rankings, possibly due to age difference or Fitz’s absence from practices as well.
As of Aug. 26, Brown was 6.08, only two picks below Fitzgerald at 6.06. For the entire offseason, no one has really known what to do with the Arizona receivers, Michael Floyd included. All are getting ranked fairly low because they can’t all have good seasons, right?
Keeping with wide receivers, Devin Funchess has seen an astronomical leap from 12.04 two weeks ago, to his current 10.04. Most of this is because of talk. Everyone in Carolina camp is hyping the second-year wide out. He’s been said to “pushing” Kelvin Benjamin, one of the MVPs of camp and “ready to break through.”
But let’s settle down and pump the brakes for a minute. The Panthers are a run-first team, got 2014’s leading WR back in Benjamin and still have Greg Olsen at tight end. Then you throw in Ted Ginn and Corey Brown for a target or two and how many are left for Funchess?
Funchess may look great, but unless the Panthers air it out with regularity, his value will be hit-or-miss in this offense. Suddenly, Funchess has run into overrated territory after a couple hyped-up reports.
At running back, Christine Michael has seen the biggest leap from 13.12 two weeks ago to 9.09 in the last week of August. Most of that is warranted, as it seems like he has all but won the backup job to Thomas Rawls in the Seattle backfield. Of course, Michael has duped us before, but this looks like legit for the most part.
Because Rawls is a question mark as a workhorse for a full season, it’s expected Michael will receive touches from the start. At this point, he’s in a pretty good spot, as the No. 43 RB. However, if that keeps rising, don’t budge on grabbing Michael before the ninth round.
Martellus Bennett is an interesting case at tight end and someone who should be passed on in drafts. First off, how much can the Patriots pass the ball? Bennett has jumped from end of 12th round to beginning of 11th in the past month, mainly because beat writers have said the Patriots will be in two-tight end formations a lot. Okay.
Throw in Rob Gronkowski with multiple proven RBs and WRs as well as Jimmy Garoppolo for the first four games and Bennett’s ADP is still 13th among tight ends. What am I missing?
Taking Brandon LaFell’s target total from last year and adding a few is still only 80 targets. Chris Hogan could be a factor as well for the Patriots. At most, Bennett will probably get 100 targets. Taking him in the 11th round feels like a mistake.